Well, the chatter all over the place is about the failure of the Sims online. Analysts are disappointed by sales thus far, and it’s not even in the top ten for the week it came out!

Well, before everyone gets all scared/triumphant/catty, let’s keep in mind a few simple facts. First off, Electronic Arts is going to keep these numbers as close to their vest for as long as they can get away with it. Many people don’t remember this, but the word of mouth about their first foray into the marketplace was horrible when the game just launched, despite numbers that suggested it was flying off the shelves at a much faster rate than expected. They didn’t tell the press that their subscriber numbers were doing fine and improving steadily until they crossed the 100K threshold — nearly six months after launch. By that time, some companies had already judged the genre a train wreck waiting to happen and pulled out (I should know – Might and Magic Online was the casualty that I was working on). EA knows that other companies are watching them as closely as possible. I wouldn’t expect to get numbers up front for at least a few months.

Secondly, the reports are discussing partial numbers for the initial week – three days fewer than all of the other titles on the list. For another 2 of those days, beta testers still had access to the game. Not to mention the fact that its unclear what the fact that releasing the week of Christmas would have on a title. Certainly, it makes it hard for the product to establish word of mouth. Also, a whole bunch of people would have already bought their gifts by that point, and the mothers and housewives who typically buy that product will likely have committed their extra cash elsewhere. Certainly, the prospect of paying $50 + $10 a month is something that’s a tough sell in a period of Holiday bills.

The big question is whether or not that 12000 includes presales, but even then, you aren’t talking about the kind of audience that orders presales the way the hardcore gamer does.

I don’t know what numbers the Sims Online will eventually reach. All these numbers show is that TSO is, in fact, live and starting its crawl up the mountain. As mentioned previously, it took Ultima Online a year to hit the 100K mark, and two more to double that again (check out the numbers). EverQuest followed a very similar pattern, with a steeper ascent and a much higher peak. There’s no reason to doubt that TSO will follow a similar pattern. It’s just that the godlike ‘1 million subscribers in the first week, Maxis starts printing their own money in a month’ rumors aren’t true and never were going to be. Online games don’t grow like that (and trust me, the live team working under the line of fire would prefer that to be on the smaller side right now, until they get all the kinks out).

Online titles require word of mouth. Word of mouth requires critical mass. Reaching Critial Mass depends on many factors, but the unavoidable one is time. As long as the TSO team (who I have done contract work with in the past) realizes this and focuses all of their energy over the next 3-4 months on easing that process along, it will probably do very tidily, thank you very well.

Note from 2014: I may have erred on my conclusion on this one.